All Change
11/04/11 -- In a sharp about turn, from trading sharply higher early in the session the overnight Globex market is now mostly red. What's caused all this then? Reports of a possible ceasefire deal in Libya might have something to do with it, crude is lower on the back of that, although it's hardly falling out of bed. Brent is down 70c/barrel and NYMEX crude down 34c/barrel.
News that China "only" imported 3.5 MMT of soybeans in March may be a factor, along with COFCO saying that crushers there are only running at 40% of capacity due to poor margins, leading them to cut their 2010/11 soybean import estimate to 53-54 MMT (the USDA currently peg these at 57 MMT).
Last week's surprisingly high USDA corn ending stocks estimate seem to have been dismissed as a load of baloney.
Australian farmers may plant a record wheat area in 2011, in excess of 14 million hectares, according to Rabobank. With excellent subsoil moisture in the east that could potentially bring in a monster 30 MMT crop if production in Western Australia was to come in anything like normal.
With a domestic requirement of only 7 MMT that would leave the cricketing has-beens and wallaby-lovers with more wheat to export than you could shake an excrement-covered boomerang at. Unfortunately though, WA is as dry as a dead dingo's donger right now.
