Chicago Close

08/04/11 -- Soybeans: May 11 soybeans closed at USD13.92 1/4, up 28 3/4 cents; Nov 11 soybeans closed at USD13.96, up 30 1/2 cents; May 11 soybean meal closed at USD357.20, up USD6.30; May 11 soybean oil closed at 59.77, up 145 points. Crude oil was sharply higher, with NYMEX closing at a 30-month high and Brent at a 32-month high. The dollar slumped close to it's lowest levels since late 2009 on the budget impasse between the White House and Congress. The USDA's US soybean ending stocks number was left unchanged at 140 million bushels and Brazilian production was raised 2 MMT to 72 MMT. That put world ending stocks 2 MMT up on trade expectations at 60.9 MMT.

Corn: May 11 corn closed at USD7.68, up 9 cents; Dec 11 corn closed at USD6.53, up 8 3/4 cents. May corn ended up 32 cents on the week, with Dec increasing by 15 1/2c, further widening the old crop/new crop spread. A weak dollar and firm crude oil market added support. The market shrugged off the USDA leaving 2010/11 US ending stocks unchanged at 675 million bushels, contrary to the average trade estimate of a sharp cut to 586 million. Brazil's corn crop was estimated at 52 MMT, 2 MMT up on last month. The USDA's perception that corn usage will fall in the 3rd and 4th quarters, meaning that ending stocks won't tighten any further, is clearly being questioned by the market.

Wheat: May 11 CBOT wheat closed at USD7.97 1/2, up 24 1/4 cents; May 11 KCBT wheat closed at USD9.32 3/4, up 10 cents; May 11 MGEX wheat closed at USD9.53 1/4, up 12 1/2 cents. Chicago wheat narrowed the sizable gap between it and the higher quality wheats traded in Kanasas and Minneapolis on ideas that spiraling corn prices will lead to more wheat being fed in the US this summer. US ending stocks came in lower than expected at 839 million bushels in today's USDA stocks report. World ending stocks were up slightly to 182.8 MT against the 181.9 MMT estimated in March. The market is now concentrating on the fate of the US winter wheat crop after another week of hot and dry conditions on the southern Plains.