Nogger's Blog

11/04/11 -- Soybeans: May soy ended down 23 3/4c to USD13.68 1/2 a bushel; May soymeal dropped USD7.50 at USD349.70; May soyoil slid 95 points to 58.82c/pound. Reports out of China that poor crush margins were leading to a slowdown in soybean imports were met with scepticism in some quarters. "Watch what China do and not what they say," one analyst rightly warned today. Unfortunately what they ARE doing is importing fewer beans, particularly US beans. US weekly export sales have been sluggish now for several weeks, and with China typically accounting for around 75% of all bean sales on a weekly basis, that is having a negative impact on the outlook for US soybean sales for the remainder of the season.

Corn: May corn jumped 8c to USD7.76 a bushel; Dec corn rose 4 1/4c to USD6.57 1/4 a bushel. Corn continues to be the strongest leg of the complex, with overnight levels hitting a fresh all time front month high. The USDA weekly export inspections report of 38.796 million bushels was OK, but below the total needed to attain the USDA's target of 1.95 billion bushels for the 2010/11 marketing year. The USDA came out with their planting progress report after the close pegging the 2011/12 US corn crop at 3% seeded, slightly below the 4% anticipated by the trade.

Wheat: CBOT May wheat rose 3/4c to USD7.98 1/4 a bushel; KCBT May dropped 13 3/4c to USD9.19; MGEX May fell 17 1/2c to USD9.35 3/4. Once again CBOT gained at the expense of better quality wheat on ideas that it and corn would soon reach parity, leading to increased demand for what from the feed sector. After the close the USDA pegged 16% of the US winter wheat crop as very poor, up from 13% a week ago. The poor category increased from 19% to 20%, Good/excellent fell from 37% to 36%. In Texas two thirds of the crop is rated poor/very poor.