Nogger's Blog

26/04/11 -- Soybeans: May 11 soybeans closed at USD13.82 3/4, down 6 3/4 cents; Nov 11 soybeans closed at USD13.74 3/4, down 7 3/4 cents; May 11 soybean meal closed at USD359.80, down USD1.30; May 11 soybean oil closed at 58.05, down 16 points. The market is looking at the weather and thinking that with corn plantings at only 9% done, surely that is going to mean more soybean acres in 2011 for the US. Meanwhile the possibility of further Chinese fiscal tightening as early as next weekend could be on the cards, and soybean demand from that quarter does finally appear to be slowing.

Corn: May 11 corn closed at USD7.66 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents; Dec 11 corn closed at USD6.75 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents. US plantings remain well behind normal pace at just 9% done, compared with 23% on the five year average and 46% a year ago. The trade remains concerned over wet and cold weather in the corn belt delaying plantings, but ultimately may have to ask itself is this a better scenario than last season's dryness? Rain does indeed make grain after all. Some, but certainly not all, forecasters are calling for a drier weather pattern to emerge over the next fortnight, which may help planting progress.

Wheat: May 11 CBOT wheat closed at USD8.11 1/4, down 14 3/4 cents; May 11 KCBT wheat closed at USD9.50 1/4, down 10 1/2 cents; May 11 MGEX wheat closed at USD9.73 1/2, down 7 1/4 cents. Stats Canada are forecasting sharply higher spring wheat plantings there at 24.724 million acres. "Kansas wheat areas are finally getting rain late in April with scattered rainfall in the state today and isolated thunderstorms tonight. There is also a possibility of showers in Western Kansas each day Friday-Sunday," say Martell Crop Projections.