Nogger's Blog

13/04/11 -- The overnights are firmer, rebounding modestly from last night's steep losses. Wheat is currently up 4-5c, corn up 5-6c and beans 7-10c firmer. The gap between May CBOT wheat and corn is only 5 1/4c, with corn having traded at a premium to wheat at one point past night.

If it's feed wheat you want then Australia have it aplenty, the problem is that it's all in the east which is causing all sorts of logistical problems. See: Grain export slows

London wheat has opened with May unchanged, July up GBP1.50 and new crop Nov down GBP0.25. It's interesting to note that we now have a front-end premium on May over July and also that there's a hefty GBP40/tonne differential between old crop July and new crop Nov.

May Paris wheat has opened EUR0.75 higher at EUR241/tonne. May London wheat is trading at GBP208.50, which is equivalent to EUR234/tonne, only marginally cheaper than French milling wheat!*

Defra report that compound feed production in the UK totalled 6.6 MMT between July 2010 and Feb 2011, up 0.2 MMT or 3% on the same period a year previously. It's interesting to note that wheat inclusion was 1.85 MMT - representing 28% of the diet versus 29% in 2009/10.

Corn gluten feed inclusion rates jumped from 0.5% to 2%, although at 137,000 MT it was still quite a small volume. Rapeseed's share of the ration fell from 8% to 7% and soya's increased from 11% to 12%. No big mind-blowing changes there then despite prices being very much different to twelve months previously.

* Footnote: as at 10.45am May London feed wheat is still GBP208.50/tonne, ie EUR234/tonne, May Paris milling wheat is now down EUR1.50 to EUR238.75/tonne. If corn can trade at a premium to wheat in Chicago for the first time since 1996, could feed wheat in the UK actually trade at a premium to French milling wheat before long?!