The Early Vibe

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 08:11 | Categorized as

27/05/11 -- The overnights are mostly green, although not by that much with wheat around 3c firmer, corn up 2c and beans 2-4c higher. Crude is a little higher and the dollar weaker, with the pound rising to around 1.6450 against the greenback.

China's CNGOIC has lowered it's 2010/11 soybean import estimate to 53 MMT, now 1.5 MMT lower than the USDA's latest estimate. The Chinese government have announced plans to sell 2 MMT of state-owned reserves at knock down prices to domestic crushers in exchange for them keeping soyoil prices low.

The upshot of that is that China's purchases from the US and South America may continue to run at unusually spartan levels, especially whilst there's still an estimated 6 MMT of soybean stocks in private hands sitting at port side in China.

The dollar is under pressure on ideas that another round of monetary easing may be on the cards if employment data due next Friday disappoints.

Locally to Nogger Towers we got 11.4 mm of rain yesterday, our biggest one day total since at least February, bringing our monthly total to 42.9 mm, more than ten times what we got in the whole of April.

LOCAL SHOPKEEPERS WHINE AS OUT OF TOWN MEGASTORE PREPARES TO OPEN

We may be set for a disappoint harvest in Europe and America, but look at it this way all we are doing is avoiding the frustration of not being able to sell a bumper crop because the Black Sea are nicking all the business.

Surely it's not too difficult to recall the days when Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan were there to undercut any offer in the market? Those days are about to be thrust upon us again I feel as the balance of power switches back to the Black Sea.

Speaking at the 4th International GAFTA Conference in Kiev the director of Noble Resources Ukraine said yesterday that the wheat harvest there could hit 20 MMT this year, giving them the potential to export 11.5-12.0 MMT, according to my chums at Bloomberg.

That places exports up around 225-250% on this season, and 3.0-3.5 MMT more than the USDA currently estimate.

Total grain exports could hit 24 MMT in 2011/12, he said, which is significantly higher even than the government's own estimate of 19-20 MMT.

A local British shopkeeper said "They come over here with their cheap wheat, and urinate all over the place. It's a blim bloomin disgrace, that's what it is. I'm going to write a stiff note to the council."

A local Egyptian man said "Well, of course I'm going to pop up there on the park and ride and have a bit of a look round like, I'd be stupid not to, innit. I hear that they're virtually givin it away and there's a McDonald's as well. Happy days. We can take the kids and make it a nice family day out. Come on Chantelle, Beyonce, Nectarine..."