EU Grains Close

09/05/11 -- EU grains closed with May London wheat GBP4.75/tonne higher at GBP202.75/tonne and with new crop Nov climbing GBP9.00/tonne to GBP177.75/tonne. About to expire May Paris wheat closed EUR27.75/tonne higher at EUR267.75/tonne whilst Nov was up EUR13.25/tonne to EUR226.00/tonne.

At one stage May Paris wheat, which goes off the board tomorrow, touched EUR280.00/tonne showing an astonishing EUR40.00/tonne, or near 17%, rise on the day at that stage.

In London, Nov11 finished 5.3% higher, whilst even Nov12 managed to finish with impressive 5.2% gains.

The south east of England got the worst of the deal as far as UK weather was concerned over the weekend, picking up just a millimetre or two of rain. Further north and east managed to get ten times that amount.

With crops here being around 3-weeks forward, and flag leaves emerging with the crop just a foot tall there are doubts about how much good rain would ultimately do at this stage. In addition straw is likely to be in short supply again in 2011/12.

The USDA attache in Europe said last week that EU-27 2010/11 wheat ending stocks will fall to a record low 10.7 MMT this season, and despite production climbing this year 2011/12 ending stocks will barely recover, rising to only 10.9 MMT in 2011/12.

With this year's output from leading producing nations like France, Germany and Poland (and to a lesser degree the UK too) now being called into question then it looks possible that next season's ending stocks will in fact fall to fresh record lows.