Nogger's Blog

12/05/11 -- EU grains closed with May London wheat GBP3.75/tonne lower at GBP199.00/tonne and with new crop Nov falling GBP3.15/tonne to GBP172.50/tonne. Nov Paris wheat closed EUR3.75/tonne lower at EUR223.25/tonne whilst May12 was down EUR3.50/tonne to EUR226.25/tonne.

The markets hangover from yesterday's bearish USDA numbers continued to weigh. French analysts Strategie Grains said that last year's EU-27 soft wheat crop was in fact 400,000 MT higher than previously stated at 126.4 MMT.

Next season's EU-27 soft wheat production is likely to be 131.5 MMT, up 4% on last year although down 3.6 MMT from last month's estimate, they said. Soft wheat exports will fall to 17 MMT, 2 MMT down on last month's prediction, they added.

Corn production for 2011/12 was reduced from 59.5 MMT to 59.1 MMT, although that still represents an 8% increase on last season. Barley output was reduced slightly to 54.2 MMT, although again that's still a modest increase on 2010.

They also noted "the combined 14 million tonne increase in the availabilities in the Black Sea countries" in 2011/12, which was similarly alluded to in yesterday's USDA report.

Defra pegged on farm wheat stocks as at the end of February in England and Wales at 3.52 MMT, down 26% on last season.