Nogger's Blog

07/06/11 -- Soybeans: Jul 11 soybeans closed at USD13.94, up 10 3/4 cents; Nov 11 soybeans closed at USD13.85 1/4, up 12 1/2 cents; Jul 11 soybean meal closed at USD368.00, up USD8.60; Jul 11 soybean oil closed at 57.93, down 10 points. The late planting storyline rumbles on with the USDA reporting only 68% of the crop in the ground as of Sunday night, somewhat lower than the 70-75% the trade estimated. That may be due to farmers concentrating a little bit more of their efforts into getting the last of the corn in. Funds bought an estimated 5,000 contracts of beans today as the weak dollar also lent some support. The trade is now focused on Thursday's upcoming stocks and WASDE report.

Corn: Jul 11 corn closed at USD7.36 1/2, up 4 1/2 cents; Dec 11 corn closed at USD6.76 1/2, up 9 1/2 cents. The USDA said that 6% of the crop remains unplanted as of Sunday, that equates to around 5.5 million acres. Funds bought an estimated 5,000 contracts on the day. Private exporters announced the sale of 548,640 MT of new crop corn, along with a further 274,320 MT for 2012/13 delivery all to Mexico. In Thursday's stocks report 2010/11 carryout is estimated at 715 million bushels, 15 million down on last month and almost a billion below the levels of 2008/10. New crop ending stocks are pegged at 817 million, down from 900 million in May.

Wheat: Jul 11 CBOT wheat closed at USD7.33 3/4, down 10 1/4 cents; Jul 11 KCBT wheat closed at USD8.74 1/2, down 15 1/2 cents; Jul 11 MGEX wheat closed at USD9.84 3/4, down 57 1/4 cents. Reports of European rains weighed on sentiment. US winter wheat good/excellent improved one point last night, but to only 34% as opposed to 66% a year ago. Early harvest reports coming out of Kansas suggest better quality than expected with good test weights and decent proteins. Yields are down, but given the very dry spring some are being described at "a pleasant surprise". Spring wheat planting is only 79% done compared with 98% on average and 87% a year ago (itself a wet spring).