Nogger's Blog

22/06/11 -- The overnights closed lower with beans down 6-7c, corn down 3-5c on old crop and 6-8c on new crop and wheat falling mostly around 10-15c. Outside markets are also weaker.

The dollar is firmer ahead of today's Fed press conference, and the euro is still nervous despite the Greek government's vote of confidence. They must now push through another round of large austerity cuts as a precondition for the next tranche of their IMF/EU loans.

The Canadian Wheat Board say wheat plantings are 87% done, and unlikely to progress further than that. StatsCanada are due out this afternoon with their estimates.

Ukraine have upped their 2011/12 grain export target to an ambitious 20-25 MMT from 19-20 MMT previously and an estimated 12.5 MMT in 2010/11.

The world looks like having less wheat than we thought a few months ago, but still a bigger crop than last year. In addition, it's the cheap shops that are holding most of the aces.

US pig and cattle numbers are seen falling in the second half of 2011 and beyond as producers shed numbers due to high feed costs. That's a situation that could well be being replicated here in Europe right now too.

The bulls might be a bit deflated that they haven't managed to get their recovery going for more than one or two sessions. The market still seems to want to go lower.

Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn down 5-7c, wheat down 8-10c, beans down 6-8c.