Nogger's Blog

08/06/11 -- EU grains closed higher with July London wheat up GBP3.00 to GBP193.00/tonne and with new crop Nov up GBP4.50/tonne to GBP189.00/tonne. Nov Paris wheat closed EUR8.50/tonne firmer at EUR234.00/tonne whilst May12 rose EUR8.25/tonne to EUR237.50/tonne.

Although rains continued to fall today over northern France and Germany, the general consensus is that they are only likely to stop further deterioration in crop prospects rather than add to them.

The French Ministry pegged soft wheat production there at 30.9 MMT, which combined with durum output of 1.9 MMT, gives them a total all wheat crop of 32.8 MMT, 14% down on 2010.

Barley production will total 8.7 MMT, they said. That's some 1.5 MMT down on last year, or a near 15% fall.

The numbers are in line with ones from the USDA's agricultural attaché in Paris who estimates the wheat crop at 32.3 MMT, a fall of 15% on last year.

The USDA will report tomorrow on their official world supply and demand numbers, together with US ending stocks for 2010/11 and 2011/12. They had EU-27 all wheat production at 138.6 MMT last month, we will doubtlessly see that reduced this time round.

Included within that figure was French wheat output of 36.7 MMT, that in Germany of 24.75 MMT and 16 MMT from the UK. They had Europe down to produce 53.9 MMT of barley last month with Germany and France each accounting for 9.6 MMT of that and the UK a further 5.35 MMT.

Although the rains may be too late to increase wheat and barley potential in Europe they may be able to be of some benefit to corn output which the USDA had at 59.3 MMT last month.