EU Grains Close

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 18:32 | Categorized as

21/06/11 -- EU grains finished mixed but mostly higher with July London wheat down GBP0.25 to GBP172.00/tonne and with new crop Nov climbing GBP1.60/tonne to GBP174.00/tonne. Nov Paris wheat closed EUR0.75/tonne higher at EUR212.50/tonne whilst May12 also rose EUR0.75/tonne to EUR217.00/tonne.

Old crop July London wheat is now a GBP2.00/tonne discount to new crop Nov, a GBP39.00/tonne reversal of where things were on 20th April.

The market remains nervous of what may happen in Greece, with the reshuffled government there undergoing a vote of confidence tonight and the G20 meeting Wednesday/Thursday to attempt to thrash out a solution to the complicated problem of Greek debt.

Harvesting is underway in Ukraine, with an estimated 35,000 MT of barley cut yesterday, although there is no word yet on yields. Some reports are suggesting a strong rebound in grain production in excess of 25% this year, although other estimates are less bullish.

Russian and Kazakh spring grains planting is complete at 29.6 million hectares and 15.85 million respectively, both are only fractionally shy of government targets.

"Kazakhstan spring wheat prospects good and getting better with a wet forecast and moderate-cool temperatures. Meanwhile, Russian Volga crops are also in good shape, getting plenty of rain and enjoying moderate temperatures," say Martell Crop Projections.

Widespread rains across the UK, France and Germany may be adding something to yield potential here too.

Despite drought in the southern Plains, wheat is flourishing with rainy and cool conditions in Northwest United States. Could a bumper harvest in the northern states offset low production in hard red winter wheat? The answer is yes, according to Martell Crop Projections.

"North Dakota, Washington and Montana together produce 28% of United States wheat, overshadowing the Southern Plains’ 27%. Adding other northern wheat states like Minnesota, Idaho and Oregon tips the scales even further in favour of larger northern wheat production this year," they say.