EU Wheat Close: Reports Of My Death Were Greatly Exaggerated

01/06/11 -- EU grains closed lower with July London wheat down GBP1.00 at GBP192.00/tonne and with new crop Nov closing GBP1.85 easier at GBP1987.65/tonne. Nov Paris wheat fell EUR1.50/tonne to EUR236.25/tonne whilst May12 was down EUR0.50/tonne to EUR2538.25/tonne.

As well as the impending arrival of Russia onto the global grain export stage the market was today also considering the potential of an improved European weather outlook.

Flagged up on here last night we had Martell Crop Projections reporting the GFS weather model predicting 0.75-1.5 inches of rainfall for France, Germany and the SE of the United Kingdom in the 4-day June 3rd-6th time frame.

Today other weather forecasters appeared to concur, with the possible exception of the SE of the UK.

QT Weather are now forecasting "a much wetter period seen starting late this week and lasting into mid-June," giving 0.5-1.0 inches in Western France and up to 2-4 inches for the rest of France and into Germany & Poland.

Two weeks from now these rains are seen spreading east into Eastern Europe and the FSU, whilst continuing in France and Germany, they add.

Exactly how much good these rains will do if they materialise remains to be seen, but they certainly can't do any harm can they?

One of my spies in upper Bavaria today reports that "the corn here is low in the fields, between maybe 3 and 7 inches high. Otherwise at this time of the year, it should be a foot or two tall.

"The winter wheat looks good, all green and blueish and with healthy grains developing. Not much sign of the spring drought.

"Today it's raining all over Bavaria, and in Munich it was raining since late yesterday, and quite a bit so far. Almost incessantly, so the crops should catch up. Farmers told me on my biking trip that the corn looks bad, but assured me it will be back in time."