Nogger's Blog

17/06/11 -- EU grains closed mixed with July London wheat down GBP0.15 to GBP176.50/tonne and with new crop Nov up GBP1.00/tonne to GBP174.50/tonne. Nov Paris wheat closed EUR3.00/tonne lower at EUR210.25/tonne whilst May12 fell EUR2.50/tonne to EUR218.25/tonne.

On the week as a whole July London wheat fell every day to close GBP15.50/tonne, or 8% lower. Nov was down GBP9.95/tonne, or 5%. Interestingly Nov Paris wheat was down EUR21.00/tonne, or 9%, on the week. That narrows the gap between Nov Paris milling wheat and Nov UK feed wheat to around 16 euros.

Heavy rain fell across much of southern England, central and northern France and much of Germany too today. Opinion is divided over how much good it will do, but it certainly can't do any harm.

Very early barley harvesting in France a few weeks ago reported some "disastrous" yields, but as the harvest has progressed results are coming in generally not as bad as feared.

Better than expected yields and quality are also being reported from the US winter wheat crop.

The barley harvest in Ukraine is expected to begin next week when the combines start rolling in Crimea, according to our man on the ground over there Mike Lee.

The EU has extended the duty free period for imports of feed wheat and barley, due to expire at the end of the month, until the end of the year.

Russia's Deputy Economy Minister Andrei Klepach says the the country's grain crop could top 85 MMT this year, in his personal opinion. There are mixed reports coming out of Russia, some well-conncected people are suggesting that yields will be 15-20% below normal (not on last year obviously). Others on the inside suggest that lack of moisture in some parts "isn't really an issue" at the moment.

Fund money exiting the commodities arena has certainly been a feature this week. NYMEX crude oil finished two dollars down on the day for a loss of more than six dollars on the week. Brent closed with losses of almost five dollars on the week.