Rapeseed Shortage Looming?

01/06/11 -- With an estimated crush of around 23 MMT in 2011/12 Europe could do with a bumper rapeseed crop this year, unfortunately it doesn't look like it's going to get it.

Oil World peg the 2011 EU-27 rapeseed crop at 19.2 MMT (down 6.8% on last year), with sharp falls coming from Germany, Poland and France. The German crop will be down 19% from last year at at 4.65 MMT, they say.

Toepfer agree, pegging German output at 4.4-4.8 MMT vs 5.7 MMT a year ago, a decline of between 16-23%.

In Poland GUS, the Central Statistical Office, say that winter rapeseed plantings fell 12.5% as a result of the exceptionally wet conditions in August and September. In addition the hard winter then killed off 15.7% of those fields that did get planted, they add.

My man in Romania, Europe's fifth largest producer, says that OSR potential in the south is looking particularly poor and that a "severe shortage of rape" is likely there in the coming season.

Meanwhile wet weather and flooding in Canada also is delaying planting of spring rapeseed for the second year in a row. Take a look at this short video here from my mate Brad in Saskatchewan.