Chicago Close - Wednesday
10/08/11 -- Soybeans: Aug 11 Soybeans closed at USD13.00 3/4, up 2 cents; Nov 11 Soybeans closed at USD13.01 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents; Aug 11 Soybean Meal closed at USD339.10, up USD1.10; Aug 11 Soybean Oil closed at 53.03, unchanged. Beans ended with modest gains ahead of tomorrow's all important USDA numbers. Estimates for US ending stocks for 2010/11 are 218 million bushels and estimates for 2011/12 ending stocks are 168 million bushels. This season's crop is anticiapted being reduced on the back of yields falling from the 43.4bpa forecast last month to 42.8bpa this time round. That places estimated production at 3.187 billion bushels.
Corn: Sep 11 Corn closed at USD6.78, down 1/4 cent; Dec 11 Corn closed at USD6.88 1/2, unchanged. Corn also showed little change, it seems that all the book-squaring ahead to the USDA reports had already been done. The trade is anticipating potential US corn production falling from 13.47 billion bushels last month to 13.08 billion this time round. It has to be noted however that it is entirely possible that the USDA will use the five year average corn yield and not what the trade estimates that this season's reduced potential really is. That could mean a significantly higher production estimate than the trade is expecting.
Wheat: Sep 11 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.85, up 13 1/4 cents; Sep 11 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.85, up 22 cents; Sep 11 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.37 1/4, up 20 1/2 cents. Short-covering ahead of tomorrow's USDA reports was probably behind wheat being the only commodity to put in anything like a significant rally. The trade is expecting only minor changes to US all wheat production. Global ending stocks for 2010/11 are estimated at 189.195 MMT, falling to 182.747 MMT in 2011/12. Potential increases in output and exports from Russia and Ukraine could see US shipments falling this season I feel.
