EU Wheat Close
01/09/11 -- EU grains finished lower with Nov London wheat falling GBP2.00/tonne to GBP172.75/tonne and Nov Paris wheat losing EUR2.50/tonne to EUR208.75/tonne.
Fresh news was thin on the ground, and those bulls need to be fed every day. US futures were lower, pressuring EU grains, on profit-taking ahead of a long weekend in America.
The HGCA said that the UK wheat harvest is 75% done, whilst that of spring barley is 55% complete. The winter barley and rapeseed harvests are finished. In Scotland the harvest is later and slower than average, they added.
UK wheat yields have averaged 7.5-7.7 MT/ha, slightly under the five year average of 7.8 MT/ha, they say. A remarkable recovery compared to all those "25% of the crop is lost" reports that were circulating not that long ago?
Noises coming out of Ukraine suggest that the removal of export duties there is unlikely this side of Christmas. That will affect their ability to compete with Russia and Kazakhstan on the export market. It will however only delay the inevitable. When they do eventually emerge as eager sellers they will be ultra-competitive.
EU exports continue to chug away at an unspectacular rate. Brussels granted 276,000 MT of soft wheat export licences this week, which is 50,000 MT down on a week ago.
That brings the total MY to date total to 2.1 MMT, fully 1.2 MMT lower than where we were a year ago. Imports meanwhile now stand at 2.3 MMT, meaning that effectively we currently have more wheat in Europe nine weeks into the current campaign than we started with!
