EU Wheat Close

02/09/11 -- EU grains finished mixed with Nov London wheat up GBP0.30/tonne at GBP173.05/tonne and Nov Paris wheat ending EUR0.50/tonne lower at EUR208.25/tonne.

On the week overall London wheat gained GBP1.30/tonne whilst Paris wheat fell EUR2.00/tonne.

The market regained some lost ground late in the day after America moved sharply higher on corn after respected private analyst Lanworth pegged US corn yields this season at 143.3 bu/acre, almost 10 bu/acre below last month's USDA estimate.

Closer to home the German Ag Ministry pegged the wheat crop there at a fraction under 23 MMT, 3.4% down on last season. Their rapeseed crop will plunge more than 30% to just 3.9 MMT, they added. That will likely mean substantial imports will be required by the domestic crushing industry.

UkrAgroConsult forecast that only 40-45% of the Ukraine wheat crop will make milling standard this year, down from 55% a year ago. Based on reports from my contacts over there that may be optimistic.

Russia exported 2.6 MMT of grain in July, followed by a mammoth 3.2 MMT in August, according to the Grain Union there.

So it looks like Russia, soon to be joined by Kazakhstan, will have the cheapest milling wheat in the world in 2011/12. Ukraine look set to monopolise feed wheat exports as soon as the sort out their internal red tape.