The Morning Vibe

08/09/11 -- There's not a lot to get excited about once again as the market treads water waiting for some words of wisdom from the USDA on Monday. Whether we will get them or the whole thing is consigned to Tuesday's fish & chip paper remains to be seen.

The trade is expecting a corn production number of around 12.5 billion, with soybeans coming in a shade over 3.0 billion. Yields are estimated at 148.8 bu/acre for corn and 41 bu/acre for beans. Remember that this is what the trade is expecting the USDA to say, not necessarily what the trade themselves estimate.

The French Ministry yesterday upped their all wheat production estimate there to 35.5 MMT, 2.75 MMT down on last year but much better than was predicted a few months ago and 1 MMT more than the USDA forecast.

Rapeseed production there was also raised to 5.3 MMT, both half a million more than last year and the USDA's current estimate, making France the EU's largest producer this year.

The pound had flirted with the idea of breaching support at 1.59 against the dollar this past couple of days. It's only traded below that level once since January. There are some calls for the BoE to increase QE at today's MPC meeting. I don't expect that they will, which may see sterling improve a little this afternoon.

The German high court yesterday ruled that giving money away to alcoholics in the park is fine as long as you ask you Mum first. That appears to have cleared that little one up and the market seems somehow becalmed by the news.

Scruffy McGuffy, the alcoholic's spokestramp says that they will tidy up the mess that they've made in the park straight after they get their next cash injection at lunchtime. And they've given their word on that, so that's OK.