The USDA Numbers/Early Call

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 13:34 | Categorized as

12/09/11 -- The long awaited USDA numbers are out, pegging US corn production this year at 12.497 billion bushels, a fraction under the 12.519 expected using a yield of 148.1 bu/acre which is again a little below the average trade guess of 149 bu/acre.

Soybean yields however are increased 0.4 bu/acre from last month's 41.4 bu/acre to 41.8 bu/acre, whereas the trade was expecting a 0.4 bu/acre decrease. This gives us a total crop figure of 3.085 billion bushels, 53 million above expectations.

As far as ending stocks go 2010/11 corn carryout is 920 million bushels, 20 million down from last month and 36 million below expectations. For 2011/12 ending stocks are 672 million bushels, versus 714 million last month, but higher than the 636 million expected.

Soybean ending stocks for 2010/11 are 225 million bushels (230m last time and 226m expected. For 2011/12 we have 165 million (155m; 151m).

The 2011/12 wheat ending stocks are raised from 671m bushels to 761m compared to the 663m expected.

On a global basis world corn ending stocks for 2010/11 were raised from 122.9 MMT to 124.3 MMT, and for 2011/12 they were increased from 114.5 MMT to 117.4 MMT (vs 112.5 MMT expected).

The 2011/12 world wheat crop is increased from 672 MMT to 678 MMT.

The numbers look neutral for corn, but a little bearish for wheat and quite bearish for soybeans. Early calls see beans down 10-20 cents, with wheat down 5-10 cents and corn flat to 5 cents lower.