Nogger's Blog

11/10/11 -- Soybeans: Nov 11 Soybeans closed at USD12.35 1/2, up 58 cents; Jan 12 Soybeans closed at USD12.46 1/4, up 57 1/2 cents; Oct 11 Soybean Meal closed at USD316.90, up USD12.20; Oct 11 Soybean Oil closed at 51.95, up 209 points. Heavy fund buying ahead of tomorrow's USDA report was a major feature with them adding an estimated 25,000 contracts in what was said to be a record volume day for beans. European debt optimism and a weaker dollar helped the cause. Estimates for tomorrow peg the US soybean crop at 3.102 billion bushels with 2011/12 ending stocks increasing to around 185 million bushels. After the close the USDA said that soybean harvesting was 51% complete.

Corn: Dec 11 Corn closed at USD6.45, up the daily 40 cent limit; Mar 12 Corn closed at USD6.57 1/2, also up 40 cents. Funds were said to have bought 30,000 contracts in the run-up to tomorrow's USDA report. Private exporters announced the sale of 261,200 MT of corn to Mexico and harvest progress was pegged at 33% complete after the close, up from 21% a week ago. Trade estimates for tomorrow put the US corn crop at 12.479 billion bushels with yields at 148.73 bpa. US ending stocks for 2011/12 are estimated around 805 million bushels, with world ending stocks at 120 MMT.

Wheat: Dec 11 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.60 3/4, up 49 1/4 cents; Dec 11 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.29 3/4, up 43 3/4 cents; Dec 11 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.36 1/2, up 2 1/4 cents. The large open short position in Chicago was always going to leave the market vulnerable to a rally like this ahead of a major USDA report I guess. Not that tomorrow is likely to throw up any major surprises for wheat, but it might do for corn. Funds were said to have bought 7-8,000 CBOT contracts on the day. Reports of the possible imposition of export duties on Russian grain exports added to the bullish tone. Tomorrow's USDA report is expected to show US ending stocks of 733 million bushels and world stocks at 194.6 MMT.