Nogger's Blog

18/10/11 -- EU grains finished mixed with Nov London wheat falling GBP0.90/tonne to GBP146.70/tonne and Nov Paris wheat climbing EUR1.25/tonne at EUR185.75/tonne.

London wheat remains within less than a pound (and in the case of Paris wheat within EUR2.50/tonne) of the lowest close for a front month since July 2010.

As ever it was the same old scenario of European debt weighing, with Moody's warning France of a negative outlook to its credit rating and Goldman Sachs announcing a near USD400 billion Q3 loss, saying that it has been "significantly impacted" by the problem.

Slowing Chinese economic growth is also a concern.

UK customs data shows our wheat exports totalling just 163,000 MT in August, nearly 20% below 2010 levels. That brings cumulative 2011/12 year-to-date exports (Jul/Aug) to only 279,400 MT - 40% lower than they were at this time last year.

Domestic consumers appear more than adequately covered for the time being. Indeed offtake on existing sales is reported to be slack by many merchants.

Ukraine's grain exports lag last season by 24% although their Grain Association says that they expect the President to approve their parliament's recent ruling to abolish export duties on wheat and corn "in the near future."