The USDA Numbers

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 13:47 | Categorized as

12/10/11 -- The long awaited USDA numbers are out and they're a bit of a mixed bag. For US corn the yield estimate was left unchanged from last month at 148.1 bu/acre, contrary to the expected small rise to 148.7 bu/ace. Production came in at 12.433 billion bushels versus the 12.471 billion expected. As often seems to be the case with the USDA though they take away with one hand and give with another, 2010/11 ending stocks were raised from 920 million last month to 1.128 billion this time round and 2011/12 carryout increased from 672 million to 866 million bushels, higher than the 806 million expected. World corn ending stocks were also increased for both marketing years with 2010/11 up from 124.3 MMT to 129.8 MMT and 2011/12 rising from 117.4 MMT to 123.2 MMT (vs 119.97 MMT expected). China's corn crop was upped 4 MMT to 182 MMT, which will surprise a few including the US Grains Council and imports were left unchanged at 2 MMT.

Soybeans: The report was more uniform for beans with US yields lowered to 41.5 bu/acre when the trade was expecting them to be left unchanged at 41.8 bu/acre. Final US production was forecast at 3.06 billion bushels versus the 3.08 billion expected. US ending stocks for both crop years were reduced, by 10 million for 2010/11 to 215 million bushels and by 5 million to 160 million for 2011/12 (the market was expecting a figure of 183 million). World soybean ending stocks for both season were however raised with 2010/11 coming in at 69.3 MMT (from 68.8 MMT in September) and at 63.0 MMT in 2011/12 (from 62.6 MMT).

Wheat: US all wheat production was pegged at just over 2 billion bushels with 2011/12 stocks at 837 million bushels, up from 761 million last month and the 733 million expected. World production for 2011/12 was raised from 678.1 MMT to 681.2 MMT and global ending stocks increased from 194.6 MMT to 202.4 MMT (and much higher than the unchanged 194.6 MMT expected).

There are mixed reactions online to all this but I'd call it bearish wheat, neutral to mildly bearish corn and modestly bullish on beans - so pick the bones out of that!

The last number is the stand out one for me. At 202.4 MMT we now have 10-year high world wheat stocks - pegged even higher than they were in 2009/10 when they were regularly referred to as "burdensome" by all and sundry.