Nogger's Blog

22/11/11 -- Soybeans: Jan 12 Soybeans closed at USD11.53, up 5 cents; Mar 12 Soybeans closed at USD11.62 3/4, up 4 3/4 cents; Dec 11 Soybean Meal closed at USD292.00, up USD2.40; Dec 11 Soybean Oil closed at 50.78, up 89 points. The soy complex managed a very modest bounce from recent declines which have pushed prices to more than 12-month lows on beans and meal. If that's the best it can do then further declines look likely. Meal continues to under-perform on perceived strong demand for soyoil (and thus beans) from the biodiesel sector. Funds were said to have been buyers of 2,000 lots of soybeans and 3,500 soyoil on the day, but were net sellers of 1,000 meal contracts.

Corn: Dec 11 Corn closed at USD5.99, up 1 1/4 cents; Mar 12 Corn closed at USD6.05 3/4, up 3/4 cent. As with the soy complex corn only managed to muster a tiny little correction, with front month Dec not able to close above USD6/bushel. Funds were said to be continued sellers, liquidating a further 4,000 contracts on the day. Export demand is fairly slack so this week's weekly sales and shipment numbers from the USDA will be of interest. They are delayed until Friday due to tomorrow's Thanksgiving holiday. Based on shipments so far the US is on target to export 34.25 MMT of corn in 2011/12, 5.75 MMT less than the current USDA forecast.

Wheat: Dec 11 CBOT Wheat closed at USD5.94, up 2 1/2 cents; Dec 11 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.61, down 6 cents; Dec 11 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.60 1/4, down 36 1/4 cents. Aside from front month Dec the remainder of the Chicago contracts closed with losses of around 6 cents. Minneapolis wheat fell out of bed as traders look to unwind spread trades that have pushed it up to massive premiums over Chicago. US exports continue to lag with shipments of 477,000 MT/week required to hit the USDA's 2011/12 target of 26 MMT - a level only achieved once in the last six weeks. Black Sea competition remains fierce.