Nogger's Blog

10/11/11 -- Soybeans: Nov 11 Soybeans closed at USD11.58, down 17 3/4 cents; Jan 12 Soybeans closed at USD11.67 1/2, down 18 cents; Dec 11 Soybean Meal closed at USD297.90, down USD5.20; Dec 11 Soybean Oil closed at 50.52, down 47 points. Beans equalled their lowest close of the year, a front month hasn't closed below USD11.58 since October 2010. Weekly export sales were slightly better than expected at a combined 606,800 MT. Even so European debt concerns continue to dominate the market. Spillover weakness from corn and wheat was also a negative factor along with a firm US dollar.

Corn: Dec 11 Corn closed at USD6.45 1/2, down 10 1/2 cents; Mar 12 Corn closed at USD6.54 3/4, down 10 1/4 cents. Funds sold an estimated 12,000 contracts on the day, weighed down with length and with a nervous eye on escalating European debt problems. Export sales were very poor at 251,900 MT, much lower than the 550-750,000 MT expected. That lends weight to the notion that US corn sales are missing out to significantly cheaper foreign feed wheat, of which the world has plentiful stocks. Even so despite the USDA raising US ending stocks for 2011/12 this week a stocks to use ratio of 6.7% is the second lowest in the past forty years.

Wheat: Dec 11 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.20, down 23 cents; Dec 11 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.97, down 16 cents; Dec 11 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.45 1/2, down 6 1/4 cents. Wheat export sales were low at 298,400 MT versus trade expectations of 350-450,000 MT. With shipments currently standing at 12.335 MMT, the US needs to ship 471,200 MT of wheat a week for the remainder of the marketing year to hit the USDA's export target of 26 MMT. It's failed to do that in four of the last five weeks. Egypt bought 240,000 MT of Russian/Ukraine wheat in this week's tender, US wheat wasn't even offered.