The Early Vibe

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 08:56 | Categorized as

25/11/11 -- The market has resumed the day after Thanksgiving where it left things on Wednesday night - in decline. The overnight Globex market sees wheat down 2-4 cents, corn 3-5 cents lower and beans falling 8-12 cents.

Ukraine's grain harvest now stands at 56 MMT, of which 20.4 MMT is corn off 92% of the planted area with yields on the latter up 35% on last year.

The National Australia Bank has upped it's domestic wheat crop forecast from 25 MMT to 26.6 MMT. That could be an all-time record depending on who's figures you use. The National Bureau of Statistics recently went out on a limb and said that the 2010 crop was 27.9 MMT, far higher than ABARES estimate of 26.3 MMT.

Hungary becomes the latest country to have it's credit rating downgraded to junk status, this cut came from ratings firm Moody's.

Yields on Italian two-year bonds are now pushing 7.5 percent this morning. In Portugal, who Fitch yesterday downgraded to junk, they're running at 16.68 percent. Either the ECB fires up the printing presses to keep buying these worthless bonds or it runs out of money, I can't see any other outcome at the moment.

On the week so far beans are down 58 1/4 cents, corn down 24 3/4 cents and CBOT wheat 21 1/4 cents lower including the overnights.