Nogger's Car And Other Stuff

23/11/11 -- The "Buy Nogger A Car" fund got off to a stuttering start yesterday, a bit like the old motor itself, although kind thanks have to go to the Hyde Hall Partnership for setting the ball rolling.

The garage strangely said that they could find nothing wrong with the old jalopy. I find myself wondering if I've turned into a doddering old grandad driver who can't make his mind up whether to stop, go, unwrap another Werthers Original, put on his flat cap or wet himself when the lights change to green.

I somehow doubt that you've heard the last of this, so keep that money flooding in.

Meanwhile the jobs looking a bit poorly isn't it? Where's me old mate "liffeswheat" then, he's gone a bit quiet of late hasn't he since his "some joker called Nogger trying to call a top in the wheat market" post on Twitter several months ago.

Calling a bottom in this wheat market will be more testing.

Front month Jan12 Paris wheat currently resides EUR2.50/tonne lower at EUR178.75/tonne. A break and close below key support at EUR178.50/tonne could trigger a tumble all the way down to the next support at EUR154.25/tonne, according to my chums at FCStone.

I still maintain that the European debt crisis is the single most important factor in determining future market direction. And that doesn't look like getting resolved just yet does it?

In addition the market seemed to have forgotten about the US debt ceiling issue until this week, and now we have signs that China are getting sucked into the mire as their export demand takes a hit from it's biggest buyer, cash-strapped Europe.

Once again we are reminded that the grain market these days is all about money flows, with fundamentals only playing a supporting role. Which ever side of the fence you are on, you have to take the rough with the smooth.

Going forward, as I've said at just about every presentation I've done this year, I can see wheat trading anywhere from GBP120/tonne to GBP250/tonne between now and 2015, and maybe even stretching that enormous differential on both the upside and downside. I wouldn't rule out GBP100-GBP300/tonne, which makes getting your timing right extremely crucial whether you are a grower or a consumer.

It makes fixing your input prices pretty interesting too.