Nogger's Blog

08/12/11 -- Soybeans: Jan 12 Soybeans closed at USD11.32 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents; Mar 12 Soybeans closed at USD11.42 1/4, up 1 1/4 cents; Dec 11 Soybean Meal closed at USD282.70, down USD1.00; Dec 11 Soybean Oil closed at 50.20, down 4 points. Beans posted marginal gains and meal and oil slight losses in thin trdae. Funds bought an estimated 3,000 bean contracts on the day. Weekly export sales for beans were better than expected at 770,400 MT, plus a small amount of the 2012/13 crop. Year to date sales however are still running around a third behind last year's pace. Conab reduced their Brazilian soybean crop estimate to MMT. Tomorrow is USDA report day, the trade is expecting US soybean ending stocks for 2011/12 to come in around 214 million bushels, a slight increase on November's 195 million.

Corn: Dec 11 Corn closed at USD5.90, up 7 3/4 cents; Mar 12 Corn closed at USD6.00 1/4, up 7 1/2 cents. Funds were said to have bought around 7,000 contracts on the day, even so that would put them down as net sellers of something in the region of 10,000 on the month so far. Weekly export sales from the USDA were above expectations at 695,500 MT plus a further 12,500 MT of 2012/13 crop. China was a featured buyer, taking 238,100 MT of the 2011/12 sales. Shipments were a marketing year high of 1,036,600 MT. The trade is expecting the USDA to slightly lower 2011/12 US corn ending stocks from 843 million bushels to around 831 million tomorrow. US demand for corn is strong whilst the last few weeks of the ethanol blenders' tax credit is in place.

Wheat: Dec 11 CBOT Wheat closed at USD5.76 3/4, down 6 1/4 cents; Dec 11 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.50 1/2, down 1 3/4 cents; Dec 11 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.44 3/4, down 2 cents. The USDA's weekly export sales came in at 427,200 MT for wheat (in line with expectations of 300-500 TMT). Tomorrows stocks report is forecast to show 2011/12 ending inventories at around 830 million bushels, little changed from last month's 828 million. There would appear to be potential to increase production numbers elsewhere after the FAO came out with a world wheat crop estimate some 11.5 MMT higher than the USDA at a record 694.8 MMT, 6.5 percent up from 2010. Iraq bought 400,000 MT of mixed origin milling wheat, none of which will come from the US.