Nogger's Blog

30/11/11 -- Soybeans: Jan 12 Soybeans closed at USD11.31 1/4, up 6 1/4 cents; Mar 12 Soybeans closed at USD11.41, up 6 cents; Dec 11 Soybean Meal closed at USD290.40, up USD4.30; Dec 11 Soybean Oil closed at 49.27, up 9 points. Prices rebounded from overnight lows as world central banks announced an initiative aimed at improving liquidity. The dollar fell sharply on the news and crude oil rose above USD100/barrel. Bulls were jubilant and initially acted as if this was for sure the catalyst that they'd been waiting for to propel the market back to summer highs. Ultimately then a 6 cents firmer close must be seen as a huge disappointment seeing as beans were 19-20 cents up at one stage.

Corn: Dec 11 Corn closed at USD6.01 1/4, up 3 1/4 cents; Mar 12 Corn closed at USD6.08, up 2 1/2 cents. As with soybeans corn closed well off session highs as the initial euphoria over the central banks' announcement waned. Funds were buyers for the third straight session, picking up an estimated 5,000 contracts on the day. Argentina's Ministry said that they are expecting a record 30 MMT corn crop in 2012. They are the world's second largest exporter after the US. Trade estimates for tomorrow’s weekly export sales report, which have been a bit flat of late, are 350 to 450 thousand MT.

Wheat: Dec 11 CBOT Wheat closed at USD5.95 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents; Dec 11 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.51, down 5 cents; Dec 11 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.36, down 2 3/4 cents. Trade estimates for tomorrow’s weekly export sales report are 350 to 550 thousand MT. Weekly shipments now need to come in at over 480,000 MT for the remainder of the season to meet the USDA's targeted 2011/12 export estimate of 26 MMT. It seems unlikely at this stage that this is going to be achieved unless the dollar declines considerably from current levels.