Nogger's Blog

28/12/11 -- Soybeans: Jan 12 Soybeans closed at USD11.98 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents; Mar 12 Soybeans closed at USD12.08, down 1 1/2 cents; Jan 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD310.10, up USD2.40; Jan 12 Soybean Oil closed at 51.78, down 6 points. South American analyst Michael Cordonnier cut his Brazilian soybean production estimate by 1 MMT to 74 MMT and that in Argentina by 0.5 MMT to 53 MMT. Even so, at a combined 127 MMT that is still the same as the latest USDA forecasts and the highest in history for those two countries, so it's hardly a disaster just yet.

Corn: Mar 12 Corn closed at USD6.42 1/2, up 9 1/4 cents; May 12 Corn closed at USD6.50 1/4, up 9 cents. This was the eighth higher close in a row for corn on the back of the weather in South America with funds buying an estimated 8,000 contracts on the day. Although private analysts are trimming corn production estimates for Brazil and Argentina they are generally still both at all time high levels. The next decent chance of rain for southern Brazil and central Argentina is 7-14 days away yet, so this issue is likely to rumble on into the new year at the very least.

Wheat: Mar 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.51 1/4, up 6 1/2 cents; Mar 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.99 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents; Mar 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.63, up 1/2 cent. Funds were said to have bought around 2,000 Chicago wheat contracts on the day, even so they still have a sizable short position which continues to underpin the market. Algeria bought 250,000 to 300,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat in a tender for 50,000 MT. None of that is likely to come from the US though. Weekly export sales from the USDA are delayed a day this week and will be out on Friday.