EU Wheat: Is The Glass Half Full Or Half Empty

23/12/11 -- EU grains ended a holiday-shortened session with Jan 12 London wheat up GBP1.25/tonne to GBP147.00/tonne and Jan 12 Paris wheat down EUR0.25/tonne to EUR195.00/tonne.

For the week as a whole London wheat gained GBP5.00/tonne and Paris wheat EUR11.50/tonne. It was a predictably low volume day with very little of note to report.

So as we near the end of what has been another volatile year in which London wheat has fallen over a quarter since the end of 2010, and by almost a third from the highs of the year set in April, I thought that a quick flick back through the record books might be of interest.

Despite the temptation to kick the cat because the price of wheat doesn't begin with a two any more, it is worth considering that it's only ever been higher than today's close on Christmas Eve twice before, according to my records which go back to 1984.

Those years were of course last year when it closed at GBP197.50/tonne and in 2007 when it was GBP166.25/tonne on the day before Christmas.

Once we get into 2012 the immediate market direction may depend on the longevity of the South American weather story versus the inevitable market refocus on the European debt issues.

Best wishes for Christmas to you all.