Nogger's Blog

12/01/12 -- Soybeans: Jan 12 Soybeans closed at USD11.78 1/2, down 19 cents; Mar 12 Soybeans closed at USD11.82 1/2, down 20 1/2 cents; Jan 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD306.10, down USD3.90; Jan 12 Soybean Oil closed at 51.15, down 44 points. Down, but not entirely out was perhaps the theme for the soy complex which closed well off session lows. The USDA report was not as bearish for beans as it was for corn and wheat. Argentina's crop was dropped only 1.5 MMT to 50.5 MMT, with Brazil's cut 1 MMT to 74 MMT. US ending stocks were raised 45 million bushels from last month to 275 million, but on a world scale global 2011/12 inventories were reduced by 1.1 MMT to 63.4 MMT. Private exporters announced the sale of 414,000 MT of soybeans to unknown. Weekly export sales were 433,860 MT - in line with expectations. Funds sold an estimated 11,000 soybean contracts on the day.

Corn: Mar 12 Corn closed at USD6.11 1/2, down the daily 40 cents limit; May 12 Corn closed at USD6.18 1/4, also down 40 cents. Funds were said to have dumped 18,000 contracts on the day after the USDA report came in bearish for corn. US 2011 yields yields were also increased by 0.5bpa contrary to an anticipated a 0.5bpa drop. That placed 2011/12 US ending stocks around 100 million bushels higher than expected at 846 million. Argy production by 3 MMT to 26 MMT and left Brazil's unchanged at 61 MMT. Both of those would still be a record. Ukraine- who have been an aggressive seller of late - had it's production for 2011 was raised by 1.5 MMT to 22.5 MMT. Weekly export sales of 321,500 MT for 2011/12 and negative 23,000 MT for 2012/13 were below expectations too.

Wheat: Mar 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.05, down 36 cents; Mar 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.73, down 28 3/4 cents; Mar 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.07 1/2, down 9 cents. Funds sold an estimated 6,000 CBOT wheat contracts on the day. Global 2011/12 wheat ending stocks were raised to 210 MMT, within 0.4 MMT of being the highest ever recorded. Weekly export sales of 365,200 MT for wheat were at the low end of trade estimates. Shipments of just 196,200 MT were the lowest since the first week of the marketing year and fell well short of the amount needed to meet the USDA's target for 2011/12 of 25 MMT. US winter wheat plantings for the 2012 harvest were pegged a million acres higher than expected at 41.95 million, 1.3 million up on last year. The SRW wheat area came in at 8.37 million acres, significantly higher than the 7.77 million anticipated. HRW wheat was estimated at 30.1 million acres versus the 29.44 million expected.