Nogger's Blog

03/01/12 -- Soybeans: Jan 12 Soybeans closed at USD12.18 1/4, up 19 3/4 cents; Mar 12 Soybeans closed at USD12.27 1/2, up 19 3/4 cents; Jan 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD315.80, up USD6.40; Jan 12 Soybean Oil closed at 52.80, up 71 points. A hot and dry long weekend in South America saw beans close at two month highs, even if they were closer to the lows of the day rather than the highs at the end of play. Cropcast lowered its Argentine soybean production estimate by 1.6 MMT to 49.8 MMT which is 2.2 MMT lower than the latest USDA figure. Crude oil was sharply higher which also lent support.

Corn: Mar 12 Corn closed at USD6.58 1/2, up 12 cents; May 12 Corn closed at USD6.67, up 12 1/4 cents. Funds were said to have bought 13,000 contracts on the day enthused by the drought in parts of South America. New Year, new money is what they say. Cropcast cut its forecast for Argentine corn production by 3 MMT to 24.5 MMT, 5.5 MMT lower than the USDA, but even so still a record volume. The next significant rain event on the forecasts for Argentina is around 10 days away and the trade is getting jittery that this is still the case.

Wheat: Mar 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.57, up 4 1/4 cents; Mar 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.12 1/2, down 4 1/2 cents; Mar 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.44 1/4, down 5 1/4 cents. Despite closing higher wheat was also far closer to being at the lows of the day rather than the highs. Funds were said to have bought around 2,000 CBOT contracts on the day on spillover support from corn. Outside markets also helped as did a weaker US dollar.