Nogger's Blog

04/01/12 -- Soybeans: Jan 12 Soybeans closed at USD12.21 1/2, up 3 1/4 cents; Mar 12 Soybeans closed at USD12.30, up 2 1/2 cents; Jan 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD317.50, up USD1.70; Jan 12 Soybean Oil closed at 52.73, down 7 points. Funds bought an estimated 3,000 soybean contracts on the day, concentrating more on this week's hot and dry forecast for Argentina than next weeks potentially wetter outlook. Most private estimates now see soybean production there around 3 MMT lower than the USDA's 52 MMT. In Brazil estimates range from 71 MMT to 75.6 MMT versus the USDA's 75 MMT.

Corn: Mar 12 Corn closed unchanged at USD6.58 1/2; May 12 Corn closed at USD6.66 3/4, down 1/4 cent. Funds sold an estimated 3,000 contracts on the day, shedding a little of the length that they've built up over the past week or so. Weather forecasts in Argentina offer some hope for decent rains around ten days from now. Private forecasters are lining up in the 22-25 MMT range for corn production there compared to 29 MMT from the USDA last month. They will issue a revised estimate next week. For Brazilian corn the USDA are currently at 61 MMT and the trade is estimating more like 59 MMT. That would also still be a record high however.

Wheat: Mar 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.50, down 7 cents; Mar 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.14, up 1 1/2 cents; Mar 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.39, down 5 1/4 cents. Funds sold an estimated 2,000 Chicago contracts on the day. The developing South American weather scenario offers support via the potential for lower corn production theoretically maybe creating more demand for wheat. That's about the only bullish story wheat has got with record production coming from Australia, India, China and Kazakhstan this season. The USDA upped crop conditions in Kansas and Oklahoma significantly from late November.