Nogger's Blog

09/01/12 -- Soybeans: Jan 12 Soybeans closed at USD12.25 3/4, up 36 1/4 cents; Mar 12 Soybeans closed at USD12.33, up 36 1/2 cents; Jan 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD320.20, up USD10.60; Jan 12 Soybean Oil closed at 52.02, up 122 points. Beans led the entire complex, with some suggesting that they might be most at risk in Argentina due to their longer growing season. Hot and dry was the weekend theme. Rain is still on the cards later this week, but perhaps not as much as was thought last week. Opinion is widely divided over the extent of existing damage and the potential for recovery should rains arrive. The USDA reported the sale of 145,000 MT of beans to unknown.

Corn: Mar 12 Corn closed at USD6.52, up 8 1/2 cents; May 12 Corn closed at USD6.59 1/2, up 8 3/4 cents. Funds appear to have begun 2012 with a renewed risk appetite, buying an estimated 11,000 corn contracts on the day. They're hoping for some further bullish impetus from the USDA on Thursday. The bulk of the trade estimates for Argentine corn production now seem to be centred around the 25 MMT range versus 29 MMT from the USDA last month. The trade is also expecting 2011/12 US ending stocks to be reduced by around 100 million bushels from last month's 848 million.

Wheat: Mar 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.41 3/4, up 17 cents; Mar 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.98, up 18 cents; Mar 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.09 3/4, up 8 3/4 cents. The theory is that wheat demand will benefit from a slump in South American corn production. So it might, but it's unlikely that it will US wheat that gets to see the benefit. South Korea's largest feedmiller bought 55,000 MT of optional origin feed wheat from Toepfer today. That could end up being Eastern European or Australian wheat, it certainly won't be US wheat. Meanwhile US wheat hasn't won a share of Egypt's business since last June.