Little Change In Chicago Ahead Of USDA Report

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 08:12 | Categorized as

10/01/12 -- Soybeans: Jan 12 Soybeans closed at USD12.23 3/4, down 2 cents; Mar 12 Soybeans closed at USD12.32, down 1 cent; Jan 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD319.00, down USD1.20; Jan 12 Soybean Oil closed at 52.20, up 18 points. There was very little change across the board as the trade awaits the extent of Argentine rains over the next few days and ahead of Thursday's USDA reports. There is plenty of scepticism that rainfall amounts will turn out to be inadequate. Nevertheless funds sold an estimated 3,000 soybean contracts on the day. Conab today increased their Brazilian soybean crop estimate to 71.75 MMT. The USDA announced the sale of 145,000 MT of soybeans to "unknown" today. China said that it imported 52.64 MMT soybeans in 2011, down 3.9% from 2010.

Corn: Mar 12 Corn closed unchanged at USD6.52; May 12 Corn closed at USD6.59 1/4, down 1/4 cent. As with soybeans the entire complex seems to have set out it's stall, positioned itself how it wants, and is now happy to wait and see what fireworks the USDA may light on Thursday. By then we will also have a much better handle on rains in South America this week and a more reliable forecast for potential follow-up moisture for the middle of next week. Funds were said to be net buyers of 4,000 contracts on the day, further adding to their recent newly established length. In Thursday's report the USDA is seen cutting US 2011/12 ending stocks from 848 million bushels to around 750 million and 2011 US production to 12.265 billion bushels versus 12.310 billion last time.

Wheat: Mar 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.39 3/4, down 2 cents; Mar 12 KCBT Wheat closed unchanged at USD6.98; ar 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.12 1/4, up 2 1/2 cents. Weather developments in South America are less likely to affect wheat other than to potentially increase demand for it by virtue of lower corn production and therefore exports from Argentina. However, lower South American corn output isn't likely to do much, if anything, for US wheat demand. We are already starting to see Asian buyers snapping up optional origin feed wheat, probably Australian and maybe Black Sea origin, to dilute their corn requirements. South Korea's largest feed producer has bought two cargoes of optional origin wheat at around USD60/tonne cheaper than US corn in the past couple of days.