The Morning Vibe

18/01/12 -- The overnight and European grains are a little easier this morning. All eyes remain on Argentina with just about every private forecaster you can think of pegging soybean and corn production there lower than the USDA's 50.5 MMT and 26 MMT estimates of last week.

Most of the soybean figures are in the 49-50 MMT region, with corn lining up around 21.5-24.0 MMT.

There's a fair bit of rain in the forecast for the weekend and early next week though. Here's the latest GFS model for Sunday, Monday, Tuesday:

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In other news Canada's farm ministry estimate world wheat ending stocks for the current season at 211 MMT - the highest in history - I read on this morning.

Also catching my eye on Agrimoney is a story that Western Australia has had "a record grains harvest, way ahead of initial expectations."

The never far away eurozone jitters are back on the table this morning, thrashing around like a line of freshly caught mackerel. Fitch have got fed up with S&P's grabbing all the headlines this week and have chucked their two penneth in, saying that a two notch downgrade for Italy is on the cards and that Greece will default on it's debt, albeit in an orderly manner.

After the release of yesterday's impressive UK export numbers for November which included 49,500 MT of wheat heading across the pond to the US word is reaching Nogger Towers this morning of a similar sized vessel currently loading in Tilbury heading in the same direction.

Even so, on a cumulative basis we've exported 24% less wheat in the Jul/Nov period in 2011/12 than we had at the same point in 2010/11. OSR shipments however are more than double where they were last season at almost 322 TMT.