Nogger's Blog

19/01/12 -- The USDA numbers last week certainly stirred things up, with some fairly widespread shouts of "you don't know what you're doing" coming from the stands.

So I thought I'd take a little time out this morning to put together a table of other popular analysts estimates for comparison purposes.

For Argy soybeans their estimate of 50.5 MMT, whilst the highest it isn't outrageously so, being just 1% more than the average guess. The average of the four guesses is only half a million less than that, and that still represents a larger crop than last year and in fact the second highest production ever.

For Brazilian soybeans at 74 MMT they were again towards the top end of the range although not the highest, coming in 2% above the average guess of 72.4 MMT. Again this would be the second highest soybean crop in Brazil's history.

Looking at corn. Argentine production of 26.0 MMT from the USDA does stick out as looking somewhat outrageous, coming in 14% higher than the average guess. Even so the average forecast is the second highest Argy corn crop in history.

In Brazil the USDA fall back into line, coming in less than 1.7% above the average guess of 60.0 MMT which in itself is a record.