Tell Me Something I Don't Already Know

25/01/12 -- Jolly old London wheat certainly has the bit between it's teeth at the moment rising, according to the press, on ideas that Russian exports might be lower than expected and/or some sort of export ban or duty might be imposed.

Some are talking about Russia capping exports at around 25 MMT as if this news only came out yesterday. It's actually been in the market pretty much since the export ban was lifted last summer.

"Russia's exports may tail off around Feb/Mar as they approach Putin's suggested comfort zone of 24-25 MMT of foreign grain sales." I wrote that on here in October.

London wheat has now put on more than GBP20.00/tonne in the last six weeks, yet apart from the Argy corn crop losing some of the potential it had then fundamentally nothing much has changed.

We're certainly no closer to a solution to the European debt crisis, we're probably closer to the "endgame" for Europe in fact.

The current rally isn't demand-led. From what I am hearing UK exporters are actively out there looking for buying interest at these levels and finding very little, by all accounts.

On the supply side though I am also hearing that farmers are reluctant sellers. Bollocks to a potential GBP20.00/tonne extra in the sky rocket, I can still see GBP200.00/tonne in my rear view mirror if I look hard enough seems to be the general mood.

Which strangely put me in mind of this story from the dog's blog: Woof