Nogger's Blog

10/02/12 -- Soybeans: Mar 12 Soybeans closed at USD12.29, up 1 1/2 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD12.39 1/2, up 1 cent; Mar 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD320.00, down USD1.00; Mar 12 Soybean Oil closed at 52.53, down 1 points. Beans rebounded from double digit losses at one point to close the week overall 3 1/2 cents lower on the March, with meal down a more significant USD8.60 and oil closing up 88 points. The USDA announced the sale of 120,000 MT of soybeans to China. They cut soybean imports by the latter 1 MMT to 55.5 MMT yesterday, but that figure is still up more than 3 MMT on 2010/11. Year to date Chinese imports are however more than 3 MMT lower than at this time a year ago, suggesting that the USDA's 2011/12 target may have to be lowered further yet.

Corn: Mar 12 Corn closed at USD6.31 3/4, down 5 1/4 cents; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD5.59 3/4, down 8 1/4 cents. On the week corn was 12 3/4 cents lower on the March. Weakness in wheat spilled over into corn which saw the March contract close below key support at USD6.33/bu. Renewed fears of a Greek default saw the dollar sharply higher in a "risk off" move, with weaker crude oil also a negative influence. Funds were said to have sold 8,000 contracts on the day despite the USDA reporting the sale of 240,000 MT to Egypt. Ethanol margins are getting squeezed tightly with reports coming through of slowdowns and shutdowns amongst producers in the US now that the 45 cent tax break has gone.

Wheat: Mar 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.30, down 16 cents; Mar 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.73, down 19 cents; Mar 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.14 1/4, down 17 1/2 cents. For the week as a whole Chicago wheat was down 30 3/4 cents, with Kansas dropping 39 cents and Minneapolis losing 24 1/4 cents. In amongst yesterday's USDA data was a forecast increase in US winter wheat acres of 30% to just under 42 million acres. That's why Kansas wheat took the biggest hit for the past couple of sessions. World wheat ending stocks at the highest level in history can't be anything but bearish for wheat either. Under the circumstances wheat at over six dollars/bushel looks a big price, especially if the Greek farce turns into a tragedy before long.