Nogger's Blog

24/02/12 -- An interesting bit of trivia, brought to my attention by my chum Phil Baynes of Baynes Nutrition. Cast your mind back to the heady summer days of mid-July 2011. I certainly remember it well as British Unfairways were attempting to leave me stranded in Kiev the bastards, but I digress.

Yes, in the middle of July last year the USDA were pegging world wheat production for 2011/12 at 662 MMT, and now they say 692 MMT. Back then ending stocks for this season were estimated at 182 MMT and now they are seen at 213 MMT. So we have both wheat production and stocks 30 MMT higher than we thought last summer, give or take.

What was front month London wheat trading at in the middle of July I hear you ask. The answer, GBP166/tonne the same as it closed at last night!

Ah, but there's a lot less corn kicking around, you're only telling us half a story here, I also see flash through your head. True, the USDA's world corn production number is lower than it was then, but only by 8 MMT, and guess what, their ending stocks estimate is 10 MMT higher than it was back then.

Discuss.

PS for the pedants amongst you Nov12 London wheat was trading around GBP155/tonne last July, just GBP4/tonne more than last night's close.