Nogger's Blog

05/03/12 -- Soybeans: Mar 12 Soybeans closed at USD13.19 1/4, down 9 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD12.89, down 9 cents; Mar 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD356.20, down USD1.10; Mar 12 Soybean Oil closed at 53.41, down 35 points. Beans were in positive territory at one stage, threatening to extend their gains for the eleventh session in a row, but gave way to light profit-taking ahead of Friday's upcoming USDA report. Funds sold an estimated 5,000 beans, 2,000 meal and 3,000 soyoil on the day. There were a rash of Brazilian soybean crop estimates out today, with Safras & Mercado coming in at 68.23 MMT, Celeres said 69.83 MMT and Aboive 69.5 MMT. The USDA were 72 MMT last month. The Food and Agriculture Policy Research Institute estimated 2012 US soybean plantings at 75.1 million acres, slightly higher than last month's USDA's Outlook Forum. They pegged 2012/13 US ending stocks almost 100 million bushels higher at 301 million.

Corn: Mar 12 Corn closed at USD6.66 1/4, up 7 1/4 cents; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD5.71 1/4, up 1 1/4 cents. As funds were getting out of the soy complex they were piling in for corn, buying an estimated 8,000 contracts on the day despite weekly export inspections being a dull 31 million bushels. That means that funds have added around 50,000 to their corn length since the February USDA report, that's the equivalent of 6.35 MMT. Tightness in old crop sees March continue to run at around a dollar premium to new crop December. The Food and Agriculture Policy Research Institute estimated 2012 US corn plantings at 93.5 million acres, half a million less than the USDA's Outlook Forum suggestion with production coming in at 13.9 billion bushels, 12.6% up on 2011.

Wheat: Mar 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.67 3/4, down 3 cents; Mar 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.05 1/2, down 5 cents; Mar 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.31 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents. Funds were thought to have been net sellers of around 2,000 Chicago contracts on the day. Weekly export inspections were 4.7 million bushels lower than the same week a year ago, and shipments also lag even though the pace has picked up a little in recent weeks. Recent rains and snowfalls in northern and central areas of the US should aid spring planting conditions. Iraq, Morocco and Syria are all tendering for wheat. As ever at this time of year Friday's USDA report is likely to be less influential for wheat direction than for corn or soybeans, so for now wheat remains a follower until we get a better idea on how the crop in the northern hemisphere emerges from winter dormancy.