Nogger's Blog

09/03/12 -- Soybeans: Mar 12 Soybeans closed at USD13.31 3/4, down 3/4 cent; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD13.05 1/4, up 5 3/4 cents; Mar 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD358.60, down USD4.60; Mar 12 Soybean Oil closed at USD53.95, up 93 points. Despite seeming to have gone up every day Mar 12 only closed the week 3 1/2 cents higher than it ended last week. Meal added just USD1.30 and oil only 19 points. All of this despite the USDA report being the most bullish for soybeans out of the big three grains. Does that mean we are bouncing on the ceiling? Only time will tell. Soybean production in both Brazil and Argentina was cut by more than anticipated, as too were world ending stocks. The disappointment came from US ending stocks unchanged and reduced Chinese, EU-27 and Brazilian usage. Mid-session Informa Economics upped their US 2012 soybean planting estimate from 74.6 million acres to 75.128 million.

Corn: Mar 12 Corn closed at USD6.54, up 9 cents; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD5.62 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents. Corn ended the day higher on widespread but unconfirmed reports of significant Chinese buying of US corn. That swept away a bearish slant to the USDA's numbers which increased production in Brazil and left Argentina's on hold, contrary to expectations for reductions to both. US ending stocks were also surprisingly left unchanged and world inventories cut by less than anticipated. Still, the Chinese rumours were enough to get funds money coming in for an estimated 10,000 contracts on the day. The Commitment of Traders report showed large funds as having increased their longs by more than 26,000 lots on the week through to Tuesday's close. Incidentally those same funds added almost 34,500 contracts of length to their soybean portfolio in the same period. Despite the firmer close Mar 12 was down 5 cents on the week. Informa now peg 2012 US corn acres as the most in 75 years.

Wheat: Mar 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.38 3/4, up 8 1/4 cents; Mar 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.79 1/2, up 6 1/4 cents; Mar 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.01 3/4, up 1/2 cent. For the week overall Chicago wheat fell 32 cents, Kansas 31 cents and Minneapolis 26 cents. Interesting then that EU wheat has risen on the week, particularly as the euro put in an overall gain on the dollar. Corn dragged wheat higher on the day, although some perceived the USDA report as supportive. World ending stocks were reduced a little, but even so at 209.6 MMT they are still within less than a million tonnes of being the highest of all time. US wheat ending stocks were cut by more than expected to 22.5 MMT by virtue of exports increasing by 1 MMT to 26.5 MMT. The latter looks a rather tall order given the relatively sluggish shipment levels over the past few months. Informa cut their acreage estimate for the 2012 harvest slightly, although it is still 3.3 million higher than last year.