Nogger's Blog

08/03/12 -- Soybeans: Mar 12 Soybeans closed at USD13.32 1/2, up 11 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD12.99 1/2, up 8 cents; Mar 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD363.20, up USD2.30; Mar 12 Soybean Oil closed at 53.02, up 41 points. Weekly export sales were large at 1,015,200 MT for 2012/13 and 630,800 MT for 2012/13 - well above expectations for combined sales of 600-900 TMT. CONAB dropped their Brazilian soybean crop forecast to 68.75 MMT versus the previous estimate of 69.23 MMT. China bought 165,000 MT of new crop soybeans. All eyes are now on the USDA tomorrow, the trade is expecting a bullish report but has been disappointed before now.

Corn: Mar 12 Corn closed at USD6.45, up 1 1/4 cents; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD5.57 1/4, down 3/4 cent. The USDA reported 106,680 MT of old crop corn sold to Japan. Weekly export sales of a combined 505,700 MT were at the low end of expectations for sales of 500 to 700 TMT. CONAB estimates the Brazilian corn crop at record 61.7 MMT compared to their previous estimate of 60.83 MMT. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s 2011/12 corn crop at 20.8 MMT versus their previous estimate of 21.3 MMT. The trade is looking for a supportive USDA report tomorrow, with decreases in South American corn production and lower US ending stocks than the 801 million bushels they gave us last month.

Wheat: Mar 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.30 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents; Mar 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.73 1/4, down 4 1/2 cents; Mar 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.01 1/4, down 3 1/4 cents. Wheat remains a laggard with funds finding enough encouragement to increase their short by an estimated 3,000 CBOT contracts heading into tomorrow's USDA report. Egypt bought 60 TMT US SRW wheat for April shipment. Weekly export sales were a combined 578,100 MT for wheat, a bit better than the 300 to 500 TMT expected. Weekly shipments now need to be almost 542 TMT/week to hit the USDA's 2011/12 MY target of 25.5 MMT, it's been fully nineteen weeks since they beat that.