The Early Vibe

12/03/12 -- The overnight market isn't doing a lot thus far. Crude is a bit easier as tensions between Iran and the West ease a little.

China has revealed a USD31.5 billion trade deficit in February, the largest in at least a decade, as demand for it's goods wanes in Europe.

Rain for US hard red winter wheat areas over the weekend will be beneficial, although more is needed.

What a lovely weekend we had here in North Yorkshire, it was hard to imagine walking the dog in shirt sleeves (me not him) yesterday that it was snowing last Sunday! There's not much rain in the forecast this side of the weekend, but it's far too early to start using the D word just yet.

Russia has exported 21.5 MMT of grains so far this marketing year, according to IKAR.

If you only read one thing today make it this: There will be contagion

I for one certainly don't believe that last week's Greek "deal" will be the end of the matter, far from it.

I think that all that has been done is to dampen down the forest fire a little.

Germany's Finance Minister is quoted as saying over the weekend "nobody can now exclude that Greece at a single moment may need a third bailout."

Indeed, when it finally gets it's EUR130 billion "pay day loan" it immediately has to pay back EUR100 billion of that to private lenders.

Look for more sideways trade in the UK wheat market this week. Interesting to note that last week was the fourth week in a row that front month London wheat posted a net change of GBP1.00/tonne or less.

Also note that March Paris wheat goes off the board today so that could do anything.