The Morning Vibe

27/03/12 -- The Monitoring Agricultural ResourceS unit, otherwise known by the slightly contrived acronym MARS have apparently said that they forecast EU soft wheat yields rising 1.7% to 5.67 MT/ha in 2012, with barley yields up 2.6% to 4.41 MT/ha.

I say apparently as I haven't actually seen the numbers myself, although their first stab at EU yields was due out on Friday there is no sign of it yet on their website.

The wheat number is slightly than Strategie Grains said earlier this month (5.8 MT/ha), whilst the barley estimate is very similar (4.4 MT/ha).

Meanwhile, isn't it hot? Yesterday's rumble across the A59 and back was rather pleasant apart from the usual hold-ups. BOCM lorries getting in my way, adhering strictly to the speed limit. NWF lorries not getting in my way, adhering strictly to the layby's.

My friend Gail Martell has sent me this interesting image plotting Europe's percent of normal rainfall for the past 60 days Water wanted. I am reliably informed that rain is on the way, but it might be the second half of April before we see it.

The boys at Bloomberg keep emailing me to ask if it's time to panic yet. It's early days yet I told them (here), a view apparently concurred with by the HGCA.

"Iberian wheat crops are suffering," Dow Jones report today, although seeing as Portugal only produced 68,000 MT of wheat last year I don't think we need to be too concerned about them.

Spain however are getting it with both barrels it would seem, and they had an all wheat crop of around 7 MMT last year.

The rain cavalry could push in from the east for Poland and Eastern Germany by the end of the week, but Northern France and the UK are set to stay dry, if a bit cooler. In fact, even Spain and Portugal will get more rain than the UK in the coming seven day period.

There does however seem to be a chance for a change to more unsettled conditions for the UK once we get into the middle of April, according to