The USDA Numbers

09/03/12 -- The USDA's eagerly awaited raft of important numbers are out. Here's the gist of it:


Brazil's crop raised, not lowered, by 1 MMT to 62 MMT. Reflects what CONAB had to say yesterday. Hopes of a large second crop coming to the rescue it would seem. Argy production left unchanged at 22 MMT, that will disappoint the bulls. US corn exports seen holding steady at 43.2 MMT. World corn ending stocks cut to 124.5 MMT, but that's a million more than the trade expected. US corn ending stocks unchanged at 801 million bushels, a cut to 785 million was expected. Overall a bit bearish for corn.


Argentina cut 1.5 MMT to 46.5 MMT, a tad lower than the 46.8 MMT average guess. Brazil's crop cut by more than anticipated too, to 68.5 MMT vs the average trade guess of 69.3 MMT and 72 MMT from the USDA last month. World ending stocks pegged at 57.3 MMT, which is 3 MMT down on last month and half a million less than anticipated. US ending stock though are left unchanged at 275 million bushels, contrary to expectations of a cut to 260 million. Despite lower output in South America, US exports left unchanged. Chinese imports cut slightly from 55.5 MMT to 55 MMT. Overall these numbers are a bit bullish though, especially when following on from yesterday's bumper export sales.


World wheat ending stocks reduced from 213.1 MMT to 209.6 MMT, meaning that they aren't now seen as being the highest on record. US wheat ending stocks cut by more than anticipated too, by 20 million bushels to 825 million. Australian production raised from 28.3 MMT to a record 29.5 MMT. Mildly friendly.