Nogger's Blog

04/04/12 -- Soybeans: May 12 Soybeans closed at USD14.19 1/2, up 2 3/4 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD13.75 1/2, down 3 1/4 cents; May 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD388.20, up USD1.70; May 12 Soybean Oil closed at 56.02, up 12 points. Funds bought an estimated 6,000 soybean contracts on the day. Informa Economics cut it's Argentine soybean crop estimate to 45 MMT and it's Brazilian number to 66.5 MMT. That's 1.5 MMT and 2 MMT respectively below the USDA's March estimate, and Informa - like the USDA - have a reputation for erring on the high side. The USDA will issue revised world S&D numbers next Tuesday. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales are 600-850 TMT for soybeans.

Corn: May 12 Corn closed at USD6.56 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD5.44 1/4, down 1 1/4 cents. Informa Economics said that Brazilian corn production this year will come in at 62 MMT, and Argentina's will amount to 22 MMT. Both estimates are down 0.5 MMT on last month, but in line with the USDA. Some private firms are now forecasting the Argentine crop to fall below 20 MMT. Funds were said to have sold 2-3,000 contracts on the day. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales are 400-700 TMT.

Wheat: May 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.39 1/4, down 18 3/4 cents; May 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.69 1/2, down 20 1/2 cents; May 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.45 3/4, down 4 1/2 cents. US wheat is competitively priced versus European wheat but still faces competition from Australia, Canada and Argentine. Australia exported 2.42 MMT of wheat in February, almost a third more than in the same month last year and believed to be the largest monthly total in nine years. The results of upcoming Egyptian and Iraqi tenders will be of interest. Egypt's last tender was split 50:50 between US and Argentine wheat, whilst Iraq recently passed on US origin to buy 300,000 MT from Canada. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales are 300-500 TMT.