Nogger's Blog

04/05/12 -- Soybeans: May 12 Soybeans closed at USD14.75, up 6 1/4 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD13.66 3/4, down 1 cent; May 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD432.10, up USD6.90; May 12 Soybean Oil closed at 53.30, down 50 points. Beans closed at or near the highs of the day at the end of a pretty volatile and choppy session. For the week old crop May 12 beans fell 21 3/4 cents, with new crop Nov 12 gaining 4 3/4 cents. May meal gained USD4.70 and May soybean oil fell 188 points. The USDA announced the sale of 120,000 MT of new crop beans to unknown today, bringing sales to unknown/China to 886,000 MT for the week. Informa Economics estimated Brazilian soybean production at 66 MMT - the same as the USDA. However they cut their Argentine production estimate to 40 MMT, in line with other trade predictions but fully 5 MMT below the USDA's April number. They increased their US 2012 soybean acreage estimate from 75.1 million to 75.8 million, almost 2 million more than the USDA forecast last month.

Corn: May 12 Corn closed at USD6.62 1/4, up 11 1/2 cents; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD5.24 1/4, down 5 1/4 cents. Corn has done the opposite to beans this week, with old crop and new crop growing ever further apart. On the week overall May 12 corn gained 9 1/2 cents whilst Dec 12 fell 14 1/2 cents. The USDA announced the sale of 116,000 MT of new crop corn to South Korea and 240,000 MT to Mexico today. Informa pegged US spring corn plantings at 96.1 million acres, 0.2 million higher than the USDA said last month and 4.2 million up on last year. They also pegged Brazil's corn crop at 66 MMT which is 4 MMT more than the USDA forecast. Argentine corn production was estimated at 21.5 MMT, similar to the USDA. A USD4/barrel collapse in the price of crude oil following a poor jobs report and an OPEC announcement that they are pumping much more oil than official targets demand weighed on the market.

Wheat: May 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.03 3/4, down 4 1/2 cents; May 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.13 3/4, down 7 cents; May 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.40, down 3 cents. For the week Chicago wheat was 38 1/2 cents lower, Kansas fell 32 3/4 cents and Minneapolis 34 cents. Finishing at USD6.09 1/2 new crop Jul 12 CBOT wheat set a contract lifetime closing low. Reports of potentially record yield potential from the Kansas wheat tour and that Oklahoma is likely to see it's output more than double in 2012 according to the Oklahoma Wheat Commission was bearish for new crop. Informa increased their US winter wheat production estimate to 45 MMT, up 0.6 MMT from last month and 4.3 MMT above output in 2011. They also pegged the spring wheat area at 13.5 million acres, some 1.5 million higher than the USDA estimated last month.