Nogger's Blog

09/05/12 -- Soybeans: May 12 Soybeans closed at USD14.27 3/4, down 10 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD13.33 1/2, down 7 cents; May 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD414.90, down USD1.70; May 12 Soybean Oil closed at 52.46, down 44 points. Beans fell for the third session in a row, with funds shedding a further 4,000 contracts of their substantial length in nervousness ahead of tomorrow's USDA report and in general commodity jitters. Greece is principally responsible for the latter once more. Trade estimates for tomorrow's US 2011/12 stocks report for soybeans are 221 million vs the USDA's 250 million last month. For 2012/13 US soybean stocks are expected to fall to 170 million bushels. World 2011/12 soybean ending stocks are forecast at 52.96 MMT from 55.52 MMT last month. South American production numbers will be scrutinised, with Argentina's soybean crop expected to be cut from 45 MMT in April to 42 MMT. Weekly export sales are expected to be robust at 1.2-1.4 MMT, with China/unknown a featured buyer.

Corn: May 12 Corn closed at USD6.41 1/4, down 24 3/4 cents; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD5.16 3/4, down 11 1/4 cents. Strong rumours that China had bought anywhere from 4-8 cargoes of old and new crop US corn still couln't save the day. As with soybeans it was outside market influences and book squaring ahead of tomorrow's USDA report that seemed primarily responsible for May 12 losing almost 25 cents. Funds were said to have sold 14,000 corn contracts on the day. The trade is expecting 2011/12 US ending stocks for corn at 758 million bushels vs the April USDA estimate of 801 million. Potentially bumper yields this year though, combined with the largest acreage since the 1930's will see 2012/13 US ending stocks more than double to 1.704 million bushels the trade believes. In South America the trade is looking for an Argentine corn crop of 20.7 MMT (vs 21.5 MMT last month) and a Brazilian corn crop of 62.7 MMT (from 62.0 MMT). Celeres today raised its forecast for the Brazilian corn crop to 65MMT. Weekly export sales are expected to be 1.1-1.3 MMT.

Wheat: May 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD5.91 1/4, down 17 3/4 cents; May 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.08, down 17 cents; May 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.31 1/4, down 1/2 cent. Wheat remains a follower of corn. Funds sold an estimated 3,000 Chicago contracts on the day with May 12 closing below USD6.00/bushel for the first time for a front month since January. Trade estimates for tomorrow's US 2011/12 stocks report for wheat are 781 million bushels vs the USDA's 793 million in April. For 2012/13 US wheat stocks are seen rising slightly to climbing to 805 million. With the 2012 US winter wheat harvest imminent the USDA are seen pegging US all wheat production this year at an average trade estimate of 2.196 billion bushels (59.8 MMT) versus 1.999 billion (54.4 MMT) last year. They will also release their first estimates on 2012/13 wheat production around the world. This season's world wheat ending stocks are forecast a million tonnes down on last month, although at a still very ample 205.27 MMT.